Well Fargo Championship

[MAGAking1]

The 2023 Wells Fargo Championship tees off this week from Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. The tournament is one of the PGA TOUR’s elevated events, which means that we will see an all-star field compete for an increased purse. Max Homa won the Wells Fargo in 2022 and will look to become the first ever golfer to record back-to-back wins in the tournament.


Despite Rory McIlroy’s recent struggles, the Irish golfer sits atop the odds board at DraftKings Sportsbook, with his odds to win set at +750. Patrick Cantlay follows him at +1200. Last week’s Mexico Open winner, Tony Finau, sits at +1400, and 2022 winner Homa is set at +1800. Homa’s odds are lower than expected because last year’s Wells Fargo did not take place at Quail Hollow, as it was moved offsite as the club prepared to host the Presidents Cup.


McIlroy has won the tournament three times, most recently in 2021, and holds the tournament record at -21.


Here’s a look at the full slate of opening odds for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, which tees off on Thursday, May 4.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Odds​

Golfer	Winner	Top 5	Top 10
Rory McIlroy	+750	+190	+100
Patrick Cantlay	+1200	+300	+150
Tony Finau	+1400	+330	+165
Xander Schauffele	+1600	+360	+180
Jordan Spieth	+1800	+400	+210
Viktor Hovland	+2000	+450	+225
Matt Fitzpatrick	+2000	+450	+225
Collin Morikawa	+2000	+450	+225
Max Homa	+2200	+500	+240
Justin Thomas	+2200	+500	+240
Cameron Young	+2200	+500	+250
Sungjae Im	+2500	+550	+260
Jason Day	+2500	+550	+260
Sam Burns	+3000	+650	+320
Tom Kim	+3500	+750	+330
Rickie Fowler	+3500	+750	+350
Tyrrell Hatton	+4000	+850	+360
Tommy Fleetwood	+4500	+900	+400
Sahith Theegala	+4500	+1000	+450
Corey Conners	+5000	+1000	+450
Shane Lowry	+5500	+1100	+500
Wyndham Clark	+6000	+1200	+550
Keith Mitchell	+6000	+1200	+550
Keegan Bradley	+6000	+1200	+500
Brian Harman	+6500	+1200	+550
Taylor Moore	+7500	+1400	+650
Matt Kuchar	+7500	+1400	+600
Si Woo Kim	+8000	+1600	+700
Taylor Montgomery	+9000	+1600	+750
Gary Woodland	+9000	+1800	+750
Chris Kirk	+9000	+1800	+750
Patrick Rodgers	+10000	+2000	+800
Adam Scott	+10000	+1800	+800
Kurt Kitayama	+11000	+2200	+900
J.J. Spaun	+11000	+2000	+850
Cam Davis	+11000	+2200	+900
Webb Simpson	+13000	+2500	+1000
Stephan Jaeger	+13000	+2500	+1000
K.H. Lee	+13000	+2500	+1100
Joel Dahmen	+13000	+2200	+900
Emiliano Grillo	+13000	+2200	+900
Denny McCarthy	+13000	+2200	+900
Davis Riley	+13000	+2500	+1000
Byeong Hun An	+13000	+2500	+1000
Adam Hadwin	+13000	+2500	+1000
Seamus Power	+15000	+3000	+1200
Hayden Buckley	+15000	+2800	+1100
Harris English	+15000	+2800	+1100
Brendon Todd	+15000	+3000	+1100
Ben Martin	+15000	+3000	+1200
Beau Hossler	+15000	+2800	+1100
Alex Noren	+15000	+2800	+1100
Sam Stevens	+18000	+3500	+1200
Sam Ryder	+18000	+3500	+1200
J.T. Poston	+18000	+3500	+1200
Ben Griffin	+18000	+3000	+1200
Andrew Putnam	+18000	+3500	+1200
Akshay Bhatia	+18000	+3500	+1200
Adam Schenk	+18000	+3500	+1200
Taylor Pendrith	+20000	+3500	+1400
S.H. Kim	+20000	+3500	+1400
Nick Hardy	+20000	+3500	+1400
Matt Wallace	+20000	+3500	+1400
Mackenzie Hughes	+20000	+4000	+1400
Luke List	+20000	+4000	+1400
Justin Suh	+20000	+4000	+1400
Garrick Higgo	+20000	+4000	+1400
Francesco Molinari	+20000	+3500	+1400
Danny Willett	+20000	+3500	+1400
Adam Svensson	+20000	+3500	+1400
Will Gordon	+25000	+4000	+1400
Robby Shelton	+25000	+4500	+1800
Joseph Bramlett	+25000	+4500	+1600
Erik Van Rooyen	+25000	+4000	+1600
Cameron Champ	+25000	+4500	+1800
Alex Smalley	+25000	+4500	+1600
Sepp Straka	+30000	+5000	+1800
Mark Hubbard	+30000	+4500	+1800
Lee Hodges	+30000	+5000	+1800
Lanto Griffin	+30000	+5500	+2200
Harry Hall	+30000	+5000	+1800
Eric Cole	+30000	+5000	+1800
Dylan Wu	+30000	+5500	+2000
Davis Thompson	+30000	+5500	+2000
Austin Smotherman	+30000	+5000	+1800
Aaron Rai	+30000	+4500	+1600
Pierceson Coody	+35000	+6500	+2500
Patton Kizzire	+35000	+6000	+2200
Nate Lashley	+35000	+6000	+2200
MJ Daffue	+35000	+6500	+2500
Michael Kim	+35000	+6000	+2200
Kevin Streelman	+35000	+6000	+2200
David Lipsky	+35000	+6500	+2200
Zach Johnson	+40000	+8000	+2800
Trey Mullinax	+40000	+8000	+3000
Ryan Palmer	+40000	+8000	+2800
Michael Thompson	+40000	+7500	+2500
Matthew NeSmith	+40000	+6500	+2500
Jimmy Walker	+40000	+7500	+2800
Doug Ghim	+40000	+6500	+2200
Chez Reavie	+40000	+7500	+2500
Ben Taylor	+40000	+8000	+2800
Austin Eckroat	+40000	+8000	+2800
Adam Long	+40000	+7000	+2500
Tyler Duncan	+50000	+8000	+3000
Stewart Cink	+50000	+9000	+3500
Scott Piercy	+50000	+8000	+3000
Ryan Gerard	+50000	+8000	+3000
Peter Malnati	+50000	+9000	+3500
Lucas Glover	+50000	+9000	+3500
Greyson Sigg	+50000	+8000	+3000
David Lingmerth	+50000	+8000	+3000
Chesson Hadley	+50000	+9000	+3500
C.T. Pan	+50000	+9000	+3000
Austin Greaser	+50000	+9000	+3000
Troy Merritt	+60000	+10000	+3500
Russell Knox	+60000	+11000	+3500
Kramer Hickok	+60000	+10000	+3500
James Hahn	+60000	+10000	+3500
Dylan Frittelli	+60000	+11000	+4000
Carson Young	+60000	+11000	+4000
Alejandro Tosti	+60000	+11000	+4000
Ryan Moore	+80000	+15000	+5000
Matthias Schwab	+80000	+11000	+4000
Martin Laird	+80000	+13000	+4000
Kevin Tway	+80000	+13000	+4500
Justin Lower	+80000	+13000	+4500
Henrik Norlander	+80000	+13000	+4000
Doc Redman	+80000	+15000	+5000
Chad Ramey	+80000	+13000	+4500
Callum Tarren	+80000	+13000	+4500
Zac Blair	+100000	+15000	+5000
Tyson Alexander	+100000	+20000	+6500
Trevor Cone	+100000	+25000	+7000
Ryan Armour	+100000	+18000	+6000
Rory Sabbatini	+100000	+18000	+6000
Robert Streb	+100000	+18000	+6000
Nico Echavarria	+100000	+18000	+5500
Harrison Endycott	+100000	+25000	+7000
Jim Herman	+150000	+25000	+7500
Jason Dufner	+150000	+30000	+9000
Richy Werenski	+200000	+35000	+10000
Nick Watney	+200000	+30000	+9000
Andrew Landry	+200000	+30000	+9000
Ryan Brehm	+250000	+35000	+11000
Quinn Riley	+250000	+40000	+25000
Max McGreevy	+250000	+40000	+18000
Kelly Kraft	+250000	+40000	+13000
J.B. Holmes	+250000	+40000	+13000
Morgan Deneen	+500000	+50000	+30000
Marcus Byrd	+500000	+50000	+30000

 

[MAGAking1]

Win Simulations for the Wells Fargo Championship​

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FD salary, win percent, top ten percent , make cut percentage, current odds

Rory McIlroy	$12,100	11.1%	50.6%	84.9%	+750
Patrick Cantlay	$11,900	7.4%	42.3%	78.0%	+1400
Tony Finau	$11,800	5.8%	39.5%	76.7%	+1700
Xander Schauffele	$11,400	5.4%	38.5%	75.9%	+1600
Cameron Young	$10,900	4.2%	25.9%	63.7%	+2100
Collin Morikawa	$11,100	3.7%	26.3%	64.8%	+2100
Jordan Spieth	$11,600	3.4%	26.8%	65.7%	+1900
Viktor Hovland	$10,600	3.4%	25.4%	64.8%	+2100
Jason Day	$10,300	3.0%	21.8%	60.0%	+2800
Sungjae Im	$10,400	2.9%	23.7%	65.7%	+2300
Max Homa	$10,800	2.8%	26.4%	67.4%	+2400
Justin Thomas	$11,300	2.6%	20.7%	62.8%	+2100
Matt Fitzpatrick	$10,500	2.5%	24.2%	65.0%	+2300
Sam Burns	$10,200	2.1%	18.0%	56.3%	+3100
Tyrrell Hatton	$9,900	2.0%	19.9%	62.2%	+4800
Sahith Theegala	$9,800	1.8%	16.9%	56.1%	+5000
Keegan Bradley	$9,600	1.6%	15.6%	54.5%	+7000
Rickie Fowler	$10,100	1.6%	15.2%	57.2%	+4100
Tom Kim	$10,000	1.4%	18.7%	60.4%	+4800
Wyndham Clark	$9,300	1.3%	14.8%	56.4%	+7500
Taylor Montgomery	$9,000	1.1%	15.6%	55.2%	+12000
Taylor Moore	$9,500	1.0%	12.2%	51.8%	+8500
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,700	0.9%	12.9%	53.0%	+5500
Gary Woodland	$9,400	0.9%	8.3%	42.8%	+9000
Corey Conners	$9,800	0.9%	10.7%	51.7%	+5000
Keith Mitchell	$9,600	0.8%	10.9%	50.5%	+7000
Kurt Kitayama	$8,600	0.7%	9.5%	45.3%	+13000
Patrick Rodgers	$9,000	0.7%	9.3%	46.5%	+12000
Denny McCarthy	$8,600	0.7%	9.8%	49.4%	+18000
Shane Lowry	$9,900	0.7%	7.7%	44.8%	+4800
Hayden Buckley	$8,500	0.6%	8.8%	44.6%	+18000
Matt Kuchar	$9,700	0.6%	10.1%	50.3%	+7000
Adam Hadwin	$8,800	0.6%	7.6%	41.8%	+17000
Chris Kirk	$9,300	0.6%	9.6%	48.8%	+10000
J.J. Spaun	$8,600	0.6%	7.7%	43.0%	+18000
Kyoung-hoon Lee	$8,600	0.6%	9.6%	48.2%	+18000
Brian Harman	$9,400	0.6%	8.0%	47.5%	+9000
Emiliano Grillo	$9,100	0.6%	7.7%	42.3%	+12000
Beau Hossler	$8,200	0.5%	6.5%	39.6%	+15000
Si Woo Kim	$9,500	0.5%	8.1%	46.5%	+7500
Cameron Davis	$9,200	0.5%	7.4%	41.6%	+9000
Benjamin Griffin	$8,500	0.5%	6.7%	40.7%	+21000
Byeong Hun An	$8,100	0.5%	5.8%	38.1%	+13000
Stephan Jaeger	$8,500	0.5%	6.5%	42.8%	+15000
Davis Riley	$9,100	0.5%	6.5%	39.5%	+11000
Adam Scott	$9,200	0.5%	6.7%	42.9%	+10000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Wells Fargo Championship​

At the top of the board, Rory McIlroy, the betting favorite, is a bit overvalued. Unlike last week when the two heavy favorites were actually values, I'm not seeing it with the overall favorite this week.

That said, there's value on both Patrick Cantlay (+1400) and Tony Finau (+1700) from the model itself. I'm much more interested in Cantlay, as Finau just won last week, but the model isn't subjectively reducing expectations for guys who won last week.

Options down the board that deserve a look for outrights (but also finishing positions) include Tyrrell Hatton (+4800), Sahith Theegala (+5000), Keegan Bradley (+7000), Wyndham Clark (+7500), Taylor Montgomery (+12000), and Patrick Rodgers (+12000).

 

[MAGAking1]

You doing any DFS on this one @chrishansen

Im going pretty light, maybe 5 lineups tops..

This is the first one

 

[MagiCap]

Who are some good longshots?

 

[MAGAking1]

Some 1st round bets to consider


Justin Thomas First Round Leader (+3500) at BetMGM


Thomas is a former winner at Quail Hollow, as he took home his first PGA Championship win at this venue back in 2017. Clearly, Thomas doesn’t mind these kinds of longer, tree-lined setups, as that’s also the sort of course where he won the PGA last season. His favorite major is approaching, and Thomas has been showing signs that he’s perhaps close to a breakthrough. He has gained over 5.5 strokes tee to green in four of his last five starts and has found some rhythm with his driver finally, gaining over 0.5 strokes off the tee in four of his last five starts. Thomas is also coming in well rested and without a win on the season. A lot of what he does in Round 1 will be putter-dependent, but his tee-to-green game suggests that it won’t be long until he breaks through. Taking him at longer +3500 odds for Round 1 — on a course he clearly loves — isn’t a poor way to start cards this week. He also has an early-afternoon tee time, which provides exposure to that wave.

Gary Woodland First Round Leader (+7000) at DraftKings


Going off early on Thursday morning is another major winner — and another player who is desperately looking for a win to change his recent run of luck — in Gary Woodland. Woodland made the cut last week in Mexico but couldn’t get anything going on the greens, losing an incredible 7.4 strokes putting for the week. The good news is that he struck the ball so well (gained 9.2 strokes ball striking) that he still managed to make the cut and finish top 40. Woodland will certainly make the putter a focus of his practice this week, and seeing him have a little positive regression with that club early on wouldn’t be shocking. Woodland opened with a solid 67 here in 2021 and shot 68 at this course in Round 1 of the PGA Championship in 2017. His early tee time and +7000 odds offer exposure to the morning wave and to a player who has proven he can go low when the conditions are nice around this longer course.


Taylor Moore First Round Leader (+7500) at DraftKings


First Round Leader Top 5 (+1100) at BetMGM


One of the strongest corollaries on the PGA Tour to Quail Hollow is the Copperhead Course, host of the Valspar Championship. That venue also plays as a longer par 71 and features plenty of winding doglegs and longer par 3’s. Copperhead is also the venue where Taylor Moore found his first win this season, and he has continued his good run of form ever since that win. Moore made the cut at the Masters last month and then saw his putter catch fire at the RBC, which earned him a share of 11th. The longer venue this week should suit a strong off-tee player like Moore, and with an early tee time and great top-5 odds, he makes sense in both the outright and top-5 markets.


Patrick Rodgers First Round Leader (+8000) at BetMGM


First Round Leader Top 5 (+1400) at BetMGM


Rodgers is another long hitter who can get red hot on the greens at almost any moment. He has also shown great improvement in his ball striking in 2023 and comes in having gained over five strokes ball striking in each of his last three starts. Rodgers grabbed a share of 10th last week in Mexico, and it was mostly due to shooting a 64 on Sunday, the best round of the day by far. Rodgers is coming into this week with confidence and has been in contention at this event before, placing second here in 2015 on his debut. He has also gained over a stroke putting at this venue in four of his five visits. His form and long odds make him a perfect Round 1 add, and he also evens out the card with a late-afternoon tee time.


Cameron Champ First Round Leader (+11000) at DraftKings


First Round Leader Top 5 (+1800) at BetMGM


It would be remiss to not also recommend a small wager on Cameron Champ for this Thursday. Champ is a massive hitter off the tee who finally found some consistency last week with his ball striking, gaining 4.8 strokes off the tee and 5.1 strokes on approach. Perhaps it’s just a small blip, but Champ is an extremely talented character whose distance gives him a long advantage on a course like Quail Hollow. He has played here once prior in 2019 and will at least have some experience with the layout. If he brings the same ball-striking level to his Thursday-afternoon tee time, he will just be one hot putting round away from hitting at some long odds. At +1800 for a top-5, there is little downside to taking a shot with him for Round 1.

 

[chrishansen]

You doing any DFS on this one @chrishansen

Im going pretty light, maybe 5 lineups tops..

This is the first one

View attachment 66330

Yep

Pretty good crossover with Rivera and Torrey. Guys do well there in same year do well Quail. When it’s actually in Quails.

Riv was much deeper talent than Tor. As you can see by guys who played both. They all did better at Tor

Golfers/Rivera/Torrey (Torrey is easier field kinda funky event)

Finish
Homa 2-1
Morikawa 6-3
Theegala 7-5
Day11-7
Thomas 24-24
Fowler 24-11
Ryder 20-4
List 24-32
Xander 34-12
Finau 25-10
Tway 40-17

Thompson
Malnati
Tway
List


Kinda like taking flyers on List, Maknati and Tway for cheap dudes back door top 35 and cram 5 mid tier horses in. Super deep field. The two studs two mids two low build seems tuff unless you are loving two horses win equity.

 

[chrishansen]

Who are some good longshots?

Bet or Dfs?

All over 50-1
Theegala
Woodland
Mitchell

Win wise they could maybe hold off the horses.

More than likely you want length! Long hard course. Those 3 all bomb it. Woody can’t putt for shit but winning score in the -9 range he has a shot. Same with Mitchell. Theegala has been a monster every event. Can definitely hang with the studs if in contention Sunday

 

[chrishansen]

Early early tee time guys the soft greens angle. And guys with big length plus good course history. Few longshots great odds.

40-1
Homa
Day

60-1
Woodland
Theegala
Mitchell

125-1
List
Svensson
Gordon
Bramlett
Dahmen


Mitchell Dahmen Rory have gotten off to good starts past 3 tournaments there....

2021 RD 1
Mitchell T3 67
List T3 67
Woodland T3 67
Dahmen 4th 68

2019 RD1
Dahmen 66
Rory 66

2018 RD 1
Mitchell T2 67
Rory 3rd 68

 

[MagiCap]

Bet or Dfs?

All over 50-1
Theegala
Woodland
Mitchell

Win wise they could maybe hold off the horses.

More than likely you want length! Long hard course. Those 3 all bomb it. Woody can’t putt for shit but winning score in the -9 range he has a shot. Same with Mitchell. Theegala has been a monster every event. Can definitely hang with the studs if in contention Sunday

Bet to win. Thank you.

 

[chrishansen]

Bet to win. Thank you.

Welcome

Keep crushing that mlb!

 

[MAGAking1]

Top 20 finishers....McElroy finished in 47th....gonna be fading him for a while.

 

[chrishansen]

Top 20 finishers....McElroy finished in 47th....gonna be fading him for a while.

View attachment 66733

You turned me on to j Walker last week

I rode his almost min price as my punt anchor this week. He did me well.

No Clark this week. I talked him up last week in an event I thought he wins. Played like ass in that cupcake event then comes out wins this week. I didn’t play him in one lineups lol

Saw your Adams Scott play crushed.

Rory can’t putt. He pops twice a year. Never worth playing.

 

[MAGAking1]

You turned me on to j Walker last week

I rode his almost min price as my punt anchor this week. He did me well.

No Clark this week. I talked him up last week in an event I thought he wins. Played like ass in that cupcake event then comes out wins this week. I didn’t play him in one lineups lol

Saw your Adams Scott play crushed.

Rory can’t putt. He pops twice a year. Never worth playing.

Yeah B An fkd that ticket up...still got a min cash even though he missed cut...probably could have been around a 10x win if he plays the weekend.